Why do some ceasefires last for only a few days, while others bring a durable end to civil conflict? What role to international interventions play in ceasefire duration? To answer these questions, I separate international interventions into civil conflicts into two distinct types: belligerent and mediating. I theorize that belligerent actors predict shorter ceasefires and mediating actors predict longer ceasefires. Using a regression analysis to analyze the relationship between the different forms of intervention and their unique impacts on the effectiveness of ceasefires, I find, contrary to the theorized effect, that both belligerent intervention and mediating intervention are predictive of shorter ceasefires. My findings suggest that intervention, regardless of type, predicts shorter ceasefires than those comprised solely of domestic actors.
